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Fitch Ratings has affirmed Amgen Inc. (Amgen) ratings as follows:
--Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A';
--Senior unsecured debt at 'A';
--Bank loan at 'A';
--Short-term IDR at 'F1';
--Commercial paper at 'F1'.
Simultaneously, Fitch has assigned an 'A' rating to Amgen's proposed $1 billion debt issuance. Proceeds of the new debt are expected to be used for general corporate purposes, including debt repayment.
The Rating Outlook is Stable. The ratings apply to approximately $10.6 billion of outstanding debt.
Amgen's credit profile is supported by solid liquidity provided by improving free cash flow and a $2.3 billion revolving credit facility due November 2012. The company has strengthened free cash flow generation over the past two years as a direct result of capital preservation efforts. Free cash flow in 2009 was $5.81 billion, rising from $4.13 billion in 2007, as capital intensity shrunk to 3.6% in 2009 from 8.6% in 2007. During the same period, free cash flow margin increased to 39.7% from 28%. Fitch anticipates free cash flow greater than $5 billion annually through the long term including significant costs associated with the introduction of new drug therapies, notably the company's key research and development (R&D) project, Prolia.
Total debt leverage of 1.54 times (x) at the end of 2009 was relatively consistent with 1.47x for the prior year, including a modest EBITDA decline and debt load increase. Amgen will seek some debt financing ahead of a $2.5 billion debt maturity in February 2011, which will raise leverage in the current year. However, Fitch expects Amgen's leverage to remain below 1.8x beyond 2010 incorporating the commercial introduction of Prolia this year.
EBITDA margin was 46.9% in 2009, representing the third consecutive year of margin expansion from 45.1% in 2006. Amgen's solid margin has been supported by significant restructuring activities in August 2007 following a drastic demand decline of the company once top-selling product, the erythropoiesis-stimulating agent (ESA) Aranesp. Following the release of study data in early 2007 indicating negative side effects from use in treating anemia of cancer patients, sales of Aranesp fell 35.7% from 2006 to 2009. Fitch expects modest margin compression in 2011 as marketing investments are dedicated to the Prolia launch, but expansion thereafter.
Total revenues decreased 2.4% (0.9% in constant currency) in 2009, brought down by the persistent Aranesp sales decline as well as demand decrease resulting from new competition to Amgen's top-selling drug, Enbrel. Reimbursement and competitive pressures, brand name and generic drug, will continue to negatively affect Amgen's maturing product portfolio; however, strong growth of newer products, including the successful commercialization of Prolia, is expected to lead to moderate sales increases in the intermediate term according to Fitch.
Amgen's R&D program is diverse, including both small molecules and biologics for the treatment of a range of diseases from heart failure to various cancers. The late-stage pipeline contains two compounds - motesanib diphosphate, for non-small cell lung cancer; and denosumab, the bone loss medicine. Denosumab has already been registered with U.S. and European drug authorities under the trade name Prolia. Amgen continues to improve the size of the mid-stage program through internal development and licensing activities. Beyond product line extensions, there are Phase II studies being conducted on 12 new molecular entities.
These rating actions reflect the application of Fitch's current criteria which is available on Fitch's website at www.fitchratings.com and specifically includes:
--'Corporate Rating Methodology', dated Nov. 24, 2009;
--'Liquidity Considerations for Corporate Issuers' dated June 12, 2007.
Additional information is available at www.fitchratings.com.
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